Thursday, February 19, 2009

Changes in the making?

Well, election time in Iran has rolled around again and former President Khatami has recently announced he will be running again. Khatami is known as reformer and is much more liberal and Western friendly (he did call for a "Dialogue of Civilizations"), of course it's hard to reform with supreme authority wielded by Grand Ayatollah Khamenei. Not only that, but Khatami faces a huge campaign battle with President Ahmadinejad and his conservative base. In fact, there has already been at least one attempt to attack Khatami. I still think that Khatami has a good chance of winning but he is definitely going to have to work for it. Another issue that plays into this election is the new attempts at "dialogue" President Obama has called for. There are plenty of strategic reasons why even Ahmadinejad wants to have better relations with America. But, will Obama's timing on any negotiations be a factor in the Iranian election? If Obama begins talks with Ahmadinejad still president, the conservatives in Iran would be bolstered and would claim victory thanks to their leadership and hardline stance. If Obama waits until after the election when Khatami might be president then it would be the "reformers" that would be able to take credit. There are plenty of people in Iran who are more than ready to improve relations with America, especially on crucial issues such as Afghanistan and Iraq. Politically, Iran is alone in the region and surrounded by states with whom it may have some strategic alliances but nothing else. Iran would do well to increase its standing in the West to improve its situation, the only question is are they ready to make some concessions (like on a nuclear weapon) and is America ready to address some of Iran's legitimate concerns (such as defense issues). So, as the situation develops I would like to write more in the election in Iran, America's actions, and regional issues relating to them.

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